How the Broncos' 2024 season sets them up for a playoff date with Buffalo
It's been nine years since the Denver Broncos have made the playoffs, and the wild 2024 season has sent them into Buffalo for an AFC Wildcard match-up.
The Denver Broncos (10-7) are set to face off on the road against the Buffalo Bills (13-4) in what will be the Broncos’ first playoff game since winning Super Bowl 50 back in 2016. Both teams had very different seasons on the way to this Wild Card matchup, but both team's strengths and weaknesses seem to have fans set for a very entertaining chess match.
The Broncos had a tumultuous season leading up to their playoff run, with a slow start under rookie quarterback Bo Nix and the second year of head coach Sean Payton’s tenure. Denver started 0-2 with losses to the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers before defeating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road. However, Nix did not throw a touchdown until week four against the New York Jets in a 10-9 road victory.
Despite the troubles, Denver showed resilience and big play-ability that Broncos teams of the recent past haven’t. A tough string of back-to-back losses to the Baltimore Ravens in blowout fashion and the Kansas City Chiefs by a heartbreaking blocked field goal was followed up with a dominant victory against the Atlanta Falcons who at the time were 7-2.
That kick-started a four-game winning streak for Denver which included an impressive Monday Night Football victory over the Cleveland Browns despite Nix throwing three interceptions and followed it with a blowout victory over the Indianapolis Colts. However, the final three weeks were less kind to Denver.
With only a four-day turnaround, the Broncos fell off after their victory against the Colts and lost a tight game to the Chargers on the road. Hampered by poor end-of-half execution and the offense sputtering in the second half, Denver lost an opportunity to clench their vice on a playoff spot. They followed that up with a heart-wrenching loss to Cincinnati, who missed a 33-yard field goal to win the game in overtime and gave Denver a multitude of chances to win the game and clinch a playoff spot yet again.
Fortunately for Denver, their final game of the season was versus a Kansas City team that rested almost every key contributor. Backup quarterback Carson Wentz was suffocated and could only throw for 98 yards as Denver won 38-0 to clinch their spot in the dance.
Overall, the Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Cornerback Pat Surtain II had four interceptions, including an 100 yard pick six, and is currently the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year. The addition of Brandon Jones in place of Justin Simmons proved to be a positive as Jones had his best season as a pro, posting new career highs in tackles (115) and interceptions (3) despite missing a large chunk of training camp with a hamstring injury.
The CB2 spot was one of much intrigue following the lack of production from that position between Fabian Moreau and Demarri Mathis in 2023. Second-year cornerback Riley Moss won the job and was one of the headlines of the top-tier defense.
In weeks 1-12, the Broncos allowed only about four 15-plus-yard completions per game, which was fifth lowest in the league. When Moss went down with an MCL injury that kept him out for three games, that number went up to about eight completions per game, the most in the league in that time frame.
That three-week absence included some of the worst defensive performances by Denver, including in the aforementioned victory over the Browns. Levi Wallace, who took Moss’ position, was torched primarily by former Bronco Jerry Jeudy. Wallace gave up seven catches for 164 yards and a touchdown, while the Browns put up 475 yards through the air in total. With Moss back in the mix and with a few games of getting back up to speed under his belt, it would be no surprise if Denver’s secondary returned to lockdown form versus a Bills receiving corps that lacks a true superstar.
Edge rusher Nik Bonitto had a breakout season to follow up his successful 2023 campaign, where he usurped big-money signing Randy Gregory for the starting job four weeks into the season. In 2024, Bonitto posted 13.5 sacks, obtaining the first double-digit sack season for a Bronco since 2018 (Von Miller, Bradley Chubb). He also caught a pick six and had an intercepted lateral on a trick play that he returned for a touchdown against the Colts, which went down as a fumble recovery for a touchdown.
On the other side, Jonathan Cooper joined Bonitto as the first Broncos to tally double-digit sacks since Miller and Chubb as he finished with 10.5 of his own. The Ohio State product inked a four-year, $60 million extension midseason as Denver is keen to keep an edge rushing duo together that contributed to the league-high and franchise record setting 63 sacks.
With a top-tier defense that may have the chops to carry the team deep into the playoffs, the offense is where most of the concerns present themselves for Denver. Although they put up six 30-point games and Nix is set to be the runner-up for Offensive Rookie of the Year, the offense was plagued by inconsistency and a mostly lackluster run game.
Nix struggled with inaccuracy all season, particularly on his downfield throws. As the season progressed, his shaky footwork and poor confidence in the pocket have seen a tangible and noticeable improvement, but it is still not perfect. He’s still yet to master the deep ball that 2023 starter Russell Wilson frequently made huge plays on.
That isn’t to say that Nix isn’t on the right track, because he is, but he has clear weaknesses in his game that the Bills defense can take advantage of.
As mentioned previously, the run game was a large point of concern. Led by fourth-year veteran Javonte Williams, the team was 15th in total rushing yards, which is not terrible, but the team’s best rusher was arguably their starting quarterback.
Nix rushed for 430 yards, third on the team, and led the Broncos with six big runs, per ESPN. No other rusher on the team had more than one. He also led the team in yards per carry (among the top four rushers who had at least 76 carries) at 4.7 yards and tied with Williams for a team-high four touchdowns.
The issue is that Nix’s rushing production is not equivalent to that of Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, or Jalen Hurts whose running prowess is considered a major part of the game plan, and multiple plays are drawn up per game specifically to get them the ball. Most of Nix’s rushes came from him extending passing plays, tucking the ball, and running it for a gain when there were no open targets downfield. When it came to the traditional run game, Denver saw negligible production.
If Buffalo can do the not-so-tough job of neutralizing Denver’s running backs on the ground and keep Nix in the pocket, Denver may see 40+ passing attempts from the rookie in his playoff debut, which will likely not fare well for the Broncos’ offense.
Williams led the team with only 513 yards on the ground, putting him 42nd in the league with 3.7 yards per carry. No other team in the AFC playoffs had a leading rusher below 22nd in yards, which was JK Dobbins of the Los Angeles Chargers. This puts Denver in a tough spot in their playoff return as they often found their traditional run game faltering, forcing the offense to become one-dimensional. That may fly versus the likes of the Carolina Panthers, Colts, and starter-less Chiefs, but the Bills are on a different tier for a reason.
However, receiver Courtland Sutton had one of his best overall seasons in his career, totaling over 1,000 yards for the first time since 2019. He continued to have a knack for finding himself in the end zone, following up his 10-touchdown 2023 season with eight scores this year.
Second-year receiver Marvin Mims Jr. also broke out offensively and continued to be a top-tier return specialist. He caught 52 passes for 503 yards and rushed 13 times for 42 yards as the Broncos started utilizing him out of the backfield midseason. He had some huge highlight plays for Denver this year, such as a 93-yard touchdown versus Cleveland and an amazing catch-and-run score off a screen pass in the season finale.
After a season that was full of peaks and valleys, triumphant wins, and disappointing losses, all focus is on Buffalo in the team’s first playoff game since 2016.
The Bills scored 62 touchdowns this season, becoming the first team in NFL history to score 30 touchdowns both on the ground and through the air. Josh Allen is the favorite to win the league’s Most Valuable Player award, boasting a stat line of 40 total touchdowns (28 passing, 12 rushing) on his way to leading the Bills to 13 wins.
Although his passing yard total of 3,731 was his lowest since 2019, his six total turnovers is a career low. 2024 was by far his most efficient season as a pro, despite losing the big-name target he previously had in Stefon Diggs.
The offense also only allowed a league-best 14 sacks this season. Facing off against the best pass rush in the NFL, this is a key neutralization that Buffalo can make to lead themselves to victory.
Despite the success, the Bills did not have a 1,000 yard receiver this season. Khalil Shakir led the team with only 821. They also did not have a receiver with more than five touchdowns (Mack Hollins led the team with five) and only had one receiver with at least 50 catches (Shakir).
The lack of a true number-one target plays to the advantage of Denver, who saw trouble hiding a lackluster CB2 in the absence of Riley Moss. Moss has since returned from his injury and played in two games, but he got off to a slow start versus Cincinnati and did not face any major talent against Kansas City in week 18. Without a true star that can be moved around in the formation to attack the recovering Moss, Buffalo is going to have to truly grind out every yard through the air.
The last time these two teams faced, the Bills had three turnovers on their way to a last-second loss to Denver in 2023. This year, Buffalo totaled only eight interceptions all year long. A clean operation likely would have won them the game last season, and the same argument can be made for this impending matchup. But with the Broncos leading the league in sacks and being tied for sixth in total takeaways, it will be no easy feat for Buffalo to achieve such a smooth process come Sunday afternoon.
Opposite to the Broncos, it’s the defense that presents question marks for Buffalo. The secondary is led by cornerbacks Rasual Douglas and Christian Benford, and while both are reliable and serviceable starters, neither are a true star that should be expected to completely ice the Broncos’ wide outs.
Further back in the secondary, safeties Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin were one of the worst safety duos in the NFL, as they were ranked 118th and 108th respectively by Pro Football Focus. An at least solid performance from the Bills secondary will go a long way in stopping the Broncos' offense before it has a chance to get hot.
Most of the Bills starters did not play in the week 18 loss to the New England Patriots as Buffalo had secured the second seed in the AFC, which means by kickoff this Sunday, it will have been 14 days since the majority of the Bills’ productive players hit the field. If they come out of the locker room rusty and behind-schedule, Denver will have a great chance to capitalize and pull off a Wild Card upset. But if the Bills are on target and have a quick start, this game has a chance to be over before it really even starts.
With Denver’s top tier pass rush, Buffalo’s top tier pass protection, Buffalo’s lack of a true star weapon, and Denver’s questions at CB2, this game has all of the variables to make up a very entertaining playoff match.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Bills as 8.5 point favorites, making them one of two Wild Card teams to be favored to win by more than one score. The total over/under is set at 47.5, so the oddsmakers expect Buffalo to win in a relatively high-scoring game.
The Broncos return to the playoffs kicks off this Sunday, Jan. 12, at 11 a.m. MT at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. The game can be seen on Paramount+ or any network that carries CBS.